The agricultural sector is the single biggest emitter of planet-warming greenhouse gases in Ireland, making up 38.4% of all emissions in 2022, according to the latest data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

This contrasts significantly with the rest of the EU, where agriculture accounts for about 11% of emissions on average (the majority of emissions from other EU countries come from energy from the burning of fossil fuels).

Following lengthy negotiations last year between Agricultural Minister Charlie McConalogue and farming lobby groups, a reduction of 25% in GHG emissions for the sector by 2030 was agreed.

While agricultural emissions reduced by 1.2% in 2022, mainly as a result of a reduction in the use of nitrogen fertilisers, that was after successive increases in previous years. Emissions went up by 14.1% in the 10 years to 2022.

At this rate, Ireland is set to fall far short of the 2030 reduction targets.

Over 62% of Ireland's agricultural emissions come from the gases that are released into the atmosphere when cows and other ruminants (such as sheep) belch.

Ruminants partially digest food in their stomach before regurgitating it, chewing and swallowing again. This process - known as enteric fermentation - is what allows them to live off a diet of grass alone, but the process releases methane into the atmosphere. 

While the amount of gas released by each cow is negligible, the sheer number of cows in Ireland and across the world means that they are one of the leading pollutants, behind the burning of fossil fuels.

CSO figures show that as of June 2023, there were 7,341,500 cows in Ireland, down 0.7% on the previous year, but up by over 1.4 million since 2011.

This is mostly as a result of increases in the number of dairy cows, which have shot up as a result of the abolition of EU-imposed milk quotas in 2015.

As well as greenhouse gas emissions, intensive cattle farming has led to other issues, with studies finding reductions in biodiversity (variety of plant and animal life), soil fertility and the quality of Ireland’s waterways as a result of land being taken up by monoculture grass and grazing cattle.

Because of these reasons, environmental experts have long called for a reduction in Ireland’s cattle numbers in order to reduce the country’s emissions, halt the pollution of waterways and increase biodiversity.

Speaking following the launch of the Government's first Climate Action Plan, Sadhbh O’Neill said that a more “balanced agricultural profile” for Ireland would involve more space for tillage and horticulture and organic farming, and less of the land being dominated by cows.

“But the reality is that the business model that’s been adopted within the agricultural sector in Ireland is very geared towards exports,” said O’Neill, who is an assistant professor at DCU’s School of Law and Government, lecturing in climate policy and politics.

“The reality is that the sector has been very much exposed to the pressures of globalisation, of producing more and more and more to feed evermore expanding markets, in far flung locations across the world.”

Over 80% of Irish agricultural produce is exported, in the form of milk powder, cheese, beef and live cattle, and other products.

In 2021, three environmental coalitions – Environmental Pillar, Stop Climate Chaos and the Sustainable Water Network (SWAN) – representing over 70 organisations published Towards a New Agricultural and Food Policy for Ireland.

The position paper set out key policy recommendations for the government to follow in order to “drive down agriculture emissions while simultaneously restoring our depleted biodiversity and water bodies”. 

These include phasing out environmentally harmful subsidies, supporting the scaling up of local nature-friendly food production, and implementing different measures to bring down methane and nitrous oxide emissions and reverse dairy expansion.

It was published after the government published its draft Agri-Food Strategy 2030, which environmental groups criticised as being inadequate from a climate and environmental perspective.

Any discussion of plans to reduce the national herd, especially if it involves the potential culling of animals, often sparks controversy.

While for years successive governments refused to countenance any plans to cull or reduce Ireland's national herd, there have been signs in recent years that this policy may change.

In 2022, a report from the Food Vision Dairy Group - a sub-group feeding into the Government's overall Food Vision plan - proposed among other measures a possible “voluntary exit/reduction" scheme for dairy farmers to reduce their herds. However, the report stated that many stakeholders did not support the proposal.

In March 2023, Minister McConalogue told the Joint Committee on Environment and Climate Action that it was the Government's hope to have this scheme up and running by the end of 2023.

However, Budget 2024 contained no financial provision for this scheme, with the minister telling RTÉ News that the scheme faced significant opposition from the majority of farmer representative groups.

In May 2023, controversy erupted when the Farming Independent published the details of an internal briefing document from the Department of Agriculture,

The document detailed possible plans to cut 65,000 dairy cows from the national herd every year for three years at a cost of €200 million.

Despite the briefing being an unpublished internal proposal, it received widespread negative national and international attention, including from multi-billionaire and X owner Elon Musk, and was the subject of much inaccurate reporting

According to the most recent Census, there were 135,037 farms in Ireland in 2020. Nearly 278,600 persons worked on farms in 2020, with 88% of those employed either the farm owner or a family member.

Farming lobby groups – representing significant numbers of Irish farmers – resist calls to reduce the number of cows, stating that farmers are under pressure from all sides and are worried about the future.

Paul O’Brien – National Environment Chair with the Irish Farmers Association (IFA) – told The Journal in 2021 that meeting the proposed emissions reduction targets would be very difficult for the sector, which is dominated by small family farms.

“When you look at the sectoral targets… then you are gonna have to say, look, this is individual families with all their individual issues,” he said.

“So it does bring this back down to a very, very kind of micro level.”

“We can use terms like ‘fundamental change’ or ‘seismic change’, but the reality is how do we go on and continue the type of farming that we’ve been doing for years and years, producing food for our export market… with a target that is going to be so high?

“It’s going to be very, very difficult for us to be in a position to still continue that farming model going forward. But what replaces that farming model is probably the question and a worry that I would have.”

O’Brien said that a lot of different measures are converging at the moment, which has farmers very worried. These include the emissions reduction targets and significant changes to the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

O’Brien and the IFA resist calls to reduce the number of cows, stating that more focus and research should be driven into mitigation measures, such as improving the efficiency of farming practices and investing more into researching carbon sequestration (storing carbon) technologies.

Another argument cited against cattle reduction is that if Ireland cuts its agricultural output, it will be taken up by other countries with worse records when it comes to sustainable farming.

The IFA frequently cites studies which show that Ireland is the most efficient producer of dairy in the EU and the fifth most efficient producer of beef (though the use of this research is disputed by An Taisce and others).

“So the question is, if we reduce our production in an Irish context, will that be taken up by countries who have a less sustainable farming model than us?” said O’Brien.

Sadhbh O’Neill disputes this characterisation, saying the whole world has a responsibility to move away from animal agriculture and towards more sustainable forms of food production.

“The reality is that, even though there is a global rising demand for dairy and beef products, that is not a sustainable diet that is consistent with our temperature goals under the Paris [Climate] Agreement.

“And there are oodles of scientific reports telling us that if we want to feed the world’s population, especially given that it’s still growing… that we’re going to have to shift towards plant based diets to make more efficient use of the land.”

While disagreeing strongly in many areas, both environmental experts and farmer lobbying groups state that stronger communication needs to come from the government on what farmers need to do.

Paul O’Brien strongly criticised the government for failing to offer clear direction to farmers.

“I think at the moment that nobody has shown us a clear model of where they believe [we should] go,” he said.

“The reality is that if you are trying to come up with an alternative for farmers to go down a certain pathway, if that pathway is going to be a dead end, then there’s going to be no options. Effectively what has happened is that there’s no clearly defined pathway for farmers at the moment.

“We have 72,000 members and their families. The vast, vast majority of those are dependent on agriculture for their primary living. And I don’t see anything in proposals coming from CAP, or government in a just transition fund, in order to bring farmers [along].

“So a farmer will ask himself the question: If it’s expected of me to reduce, how can I sustain an income as a result of me reducing my numbers?”

Sadhbh O’Neill is critical of farming lobby groups and the government for not providing clear advice to farmers on the future of agricultural production in Ireland.

She said she firmly believes that it won’t be possible to implement the emissions cuts required by the carbon budgets without reducing the number of cows in the country, and that this needed to be communicated to farmers.

“I don’t think it’s possible, personally, to achieve the carbon budgets, no matter what way it falls for the agricultural sector, without herd reduction numbers,” she said.

“I think we need to be a lot more direct with farmers, because if we keep talking around it in these vague ways, we’re not giving them a clear message as to how policy is going to be implemented in the future.

“And they need to know that, they’re entitled to know that.”