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The ‘forgotten war’ in Yemen, explained

The civil war in Yemen has been frozen in time since a fragile truce began in 2022, after eight years of intense fighting and heavy bombardment. The shells and cluster bombs are no longer falling but the people of Yemen continue to live and die in the long shadow cast by the war. 

Before the conflict began, Yemen was already the poorest country in the Arab world - and before the Israeli assault on Gaza started in October 2023, it was the site of the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Most of the country’s vital infrastructure has been destroyed, including hospitals, farms and roads, and outbreaks of disease are rife. 

What began as a civil war when the Houthi rebel movement, formally known as Ansar Allah (Supporters of God), took control of Yemen’s capital Sana’a in 2014 soon developed into a pseudo proxy war between the region's two most prominent powers, Iran and Saudi Arabia. 

The UN estimates that over 150,000 people have been killed as a direct result of the war beginning in 2014. A further 227,000 Yemenis have died due to famine and health crises resulting from the conflict.

People continue to be killed by landmines and unexploded bombs that litter the country’s roads and fields, which are hampering a return to desperately needed agricultural production. 

A series of truce agreements between the two main parties to the conflict - the Houthis and the internationally-recognised Yemeni government - have largely held further violence at bay as negotiations between the rebel group and Saudi Arabia continue to try to bring a permanent end to the situation. 

But the outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has complicated the picture and slowed down peace talks just as they were beginning to show signs of progress. In November, the Houthis began attacking ships in the Red Sea headed for Israel, and a US-led naval mission retaliated with airstrikes on targets in Yemen. 

How did the war begin?

The Arab Spring, a loosely connected series of anti-government protest movements in countries across North Africa and the Middle East that began in Tunisia in 2010, led to large-scale mobilisations of people in Yemen in 2011, particularly in Sana’a and the southern port city of Aden. 

Having engaged in numerous wars against the Yemeni government since the 1960s, the Houthis this time laid down their weapons and joined in these anti-government demonstrations in the hope of gaining more political influence and recognition for their marginalised group. 

The Houthis are Shia Muslims, a minority in the predominantly Sunni Yemen, and had long been excluded from circles of political power.   

The protests were originally focused on issues like unemployment and corruption, as well as opposition to a proposed constitutional amendment that would have made long-time leader Ali Abdullah Saleh president for life. 

The people-powered movement called on Saleh to resign which led to violence erupting between the government and the mobilised opposition. 

Saleh was forced to step down in 2012 and his place was filled by his former vice-president Abdrubbah Mansour Hadi, with the backing of other Gulf nations. 

A so-called national dialogue followed, which saw negotiations begin over a revised constitution and the division of political power among various factions. But the results left the Houthis frustrated once again. 

In 2014, weeks of street protests in response to Hadi’s plan to cut fuel subsidies came to a head when fighting erupted between the Houthis and the Yemeni army. 

After a brief battle of just a few days, the Houthis gained control of the capital city and were able to force Hadi to sign a peace deal that gave them an unprecedented level of power in government. 

Then in 2015, displeased by a proposal to change the constitution again and divide the country into six different territories, the Houthis took over the presidential palace in Sana’a, leading Hadi and his cabinet to resign. 

Former president Saleh and military forces loyal to him openly allied with the Houthis at the time.

Hadi escaped from house arrest in Sana’a and sought refuge on the south coast in his hometown of Aden, where he declared the Houthi government illegitimate and scrambled to get his own government together.

Hadi also declared Aden to be Yemen’s temporary capital but promised to regain control of Sana’a eventually. Eight years of war followed. 

How did the war play out?

In Sana’a, the Houthis disbanded parliament and appointed a council to oversee a transition to a new government, a move condemned by the UN, who said it was a violation of Yemen’s constitution and would only hinder peace talks.

The Houthis, along with forces loyal to former president Saleh - who was widely suspected of allying with the rebels ahead of the ousting of the Hadi government - swiftly gained territory south and west of Sana’a and took control of Aden.

At that point, Saudi Arabia intervened as the head of a coalition, pushing the Houthis back after months of fighting and retaking Aden as well as Marib, a city northeast of Sana’a. 

In 2017, the Houthis began launching a significant number of rocket attacks against targets in Saudi Arabia.

The same year, Saleh switched allegiance again and joined with the Hadi-led government’s side while making overtures to the Saudis. But not long after announcing the need to open a “new page” with Saudi Arabia, Saleh was killed by the Houthis, reportedly while trying to escape the capital. 

In 2018, intense fighting took place along the southern coast, as the coalition forces attempted to take the key port of Hodeidah, but ended in a deadlock. Both sides agreed to a truce during talks held in Sweden that involved withdrawing forces from the port city. 

While the truce held for the most part in that area, the troops remained in and around Hodeidah. Fighting continued in other parts of the country. 

Various attempts at finding a compromise that would lead to a lasting ceasefire were made in the years that followed but fighting continued across the country, especially in Marib, a key trading hub for agricultural products. The Houthis also hit targets in the UAE in 2022. 

Despite the devastating bombing campaign by the Saudi-led coalition, the Houthis managed to retain much of their territory, including the capital and the port of Hodeidah.  

Talks continued in 2023 and a China-brokered détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia raised hopes that progress would be made towards securing a lasting nationwide ceasefire. 

In December 2023, the parties agreed to take steps towards ending the conflict permanently in talks facilitated by the UN. 

Who are the different sides involved in the war?

The civil war involved a constellation of different actors, including political parties, jihadist groups, tribal militias and anti-Houthi resistance movements. 

As Middle East expert Dr Elisabeth Kendall of Cambridge University told The Journal on The Explainer podcast in January 2024, governmental control is “very weak” and the situation changes a lot. 

“Yemen is controlled by tribal militias, and other conglomerates who operate under the umbrella of the bigger blocks… So it's a really complex tapestry of different loyalties and alignments, which are very fluid, which makes it so hard to solve this Yemen Civil War. There's lots of side-swapping going on.”

Foreign actors were also involved. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE, as well as the US and UK, all intervened to varying degrees, either directly or in a supporting role. 

The main players were the Houthis who are backed by Iran; the internationally recognised government backed by the Saudis; and the southern separatist movement backed by the UAE.

The latter two factions - the government and Southern Transitional Council - have since merged to form the Presidential Leadership Council.

Forces loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was ousted just before the war began, also played a significant role. 

Additionally, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Islamic State each have a small presence in Yemen.

Is this a proxy war?

The extent to which the conflict constituted an actual proxy war remains a subject of disagreement among Middle East experts, particularly as the Houthis are not under Iran’s direct control, which is the case for other militant groups it supports in the region. 

But the Houthis are considered part of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”, a collection of armed groups in the Middle East that operate with Iranian support and are opposed to the US military’s presence in the the region and to the state of Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon is the most famous among them.

For that reason, it is widely seen as a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two most prominent powers in the region. 

While Iran did not intervene directly in the conflict, serving as a strategic partner to the Houthis and reportedly supplying some equipment, Saudi Arabia - with US and UK weaponry, intelligence and logistical support - conducted a relentless and hugely destructive bombing campaign in support of the internationally recognised Yemeni government.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was also involved, supporting a separatist movement in the south of the country called the Southern Transitional Council. 

Where do things stand now?

After almost two years of a shaky truce, civil war divisions in Yemen remain open wounds and despite taking a hopeful turn in 2023, ceasefire negotiations have been complicated by the conflict in Palestine.

Conditions for civilians in Yemen remain dire and fears have grown that the US-led bombing campaign against Houthi targets could exacerbate the situation and lead to civilian casualties. 

About four million people are internally displaced with nowhere to go. 

Seeking refuge abroad is not an option for the overwhelming majority of the population as Yemen is bordered by the Arabian and Red seas to the south and west, and by Saudi Arabia and Oman to the north and east, both of which maintain hostile borders. 

According to UNICEF, “the national socioeconomic systems of Yemen remain on the edge of total collapse, while conflict, large-scale displacement and recurring climate shocks have left families vulnerable to communicable disease outbreaks. 

“Millions of children lack access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene services, and the country continues to experience regular outbreaks of cholera, measles, diphtheria and other vaccine-preventable diseases.”

When cargo ships in the Red Sea first became the target of drone attacks, missile strikes and boardings by the Houthis in Yemen in late 2023, it caused some of the world’s biggest shipping companies to stop sailing via the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which 30% of global container traffic usually flows.

The Houthis stated they would continue to attack ships that have some connection to Israel, the US or the UK until the Israeli siege and assault on Gaza is halted. The United States has redesignated the Houthis as a terrorist group and promised to protect international trade. 

The attacks have been a publicity coup for the Houthis, whose actions aimed at bringing pressure to bear on Israel and its allies have won them support among their base while also appealing to the majority of Yemenis who sympathise with the plight of the people in Gaza. 

The attacks in the Red Sea have put the Houthis’ cause, and the Yemeni Civil War more generally, on the front pages of newspapers around the world, in stark contrast to the meagre international attention the conflict was paid in the nine years prior.

The naval mission led by the United States entitled Operation Prosperity Guardian notably does not include Saudi Arabia or the UAE, who have remained at the negotiating table with the Houthis.  

In fact, the only Arab country to join the naval mission is the tiny Gulf kingdom of Bahrain, which is home to the US Naval Forces Central Command and the US’s Fifth Fleet.

After years of war, the Houthis are battle hardened and have garnered a positive international reputation for their interventions in support of the Palestinians. Having already outlasted years of bombardment, blockade, food scarcity and disease outbreaks, their resolve and fighting ability seem unlikely to wane anytime soon. 

And as the United States and the United Kingdom have learned in the recent past, going to war in countries in the Middle East is a hazardous business. 

But when President Joe Biden was asked if the strikes in Yemen were “working” in January 2024, he replied:

“Well, when you say working, are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they gonna continue? Yes.”

Published

March 8, 2024

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Updated

David MacRedmond

Journalist with The Journal

The Journal
Knowledge Bank

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